Any idiot could have predicted that President Bush would commute Libby's sentence.

Why not a full pardon? Because a pardon means that Libby would lose his Fifth Amendment right to refuse to testify under oath about the president and vice president's involvement in the Plame leak in future proceedings, such as, oh, maybe congressional hearings, or the civil suit filed by Valerie Plame and Joe Wilson.

Libby's crime is that he lied to investigators to provide a firewall to Bush and especially Cheney's direct involvement in the Plame leak. The lie is the perjury charge - the firewall is the obstruction of justice.

I vomit a little bit in my mouth every time I hear a conservative say that there was "no underlying crime," because the conspiracy to out Plame - orchestrated by Cheney and directly sanctioned by the president - was absolutely a crime. You go after a vice president or a president, you betta have all of your ducks in a row. Libby's lies made it hard - if not impossible - for Fitzgerald to pursue Cheney or Bush to prosecute. He had the ducks, maybe - but not in a row.

And yes - Libby didn't just misremember. He flat out lied. He was counting on journalists not talking when he told investigators he heard Plame's identity from NBC's Tim Russert "as if I was learning it for the first time" - until his notes and Cheney's notes made it clear that he'd already been informed of Plame's identity by the vice president himself. Ooops. Then his story became: I forgot that I already knew. Ooops.

I listened to all 8 hours of testimony (yes, I'm a geek, I know). Towards the end, there's an "I can't recall" that's so oddly yet conveniently placed that the grand jury actually LAUGHS at him.

FITZGERALD: Have you talked to [Ari Flesicher] at all about [this investigation] since he's left government?

LIBBY: Not that I know of. [Muffled laughs in grand jury room.] Was that a strange answer?

Listening to the actual testimony, it's never that he can't recall - it's that he remembers everything in large detail - including the made-up events of the phone conversation with Russert - right up until the moment where Fitzgerald asks him to go into detail about anything that might implicate him or the vice president in the aforementioned conspiracy. After seven hours of this B.S., that "not that I know of" becomes the straw that breaks the grand jury's back. Laughter!

In keeping Libby from going to prison, President Bush guarantees there will be no last-minute deals between Libby's lawyers and Fitzgerald, no incentive for him to finally come clean about Bush and Cheney's involvement in the Plame outing.

So Libby sees no jail time.

"Excessive," says the president.

Think about that: Even one minute of prison time for the guy who let Judy Miller sit in jail for three months is "excessive."

So now it's not just Libby who's directly obstructing justice.

By acting to guarantee Libby's silence, President Bush is a party to the obstruction, too.

Nice.

Happy Fourth of July.

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